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Liver Cancer Rates Forecast to 2030

Clin Oncol; ePub 2016 Apr 4; Petrick, Kelly, et al

Decreasing rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) seen among Asians/Pacific Islanders (APIs), individuals younger than 65 years, and cohorts born after 1960 suggest that there will be declines in incidence in future years. This according to a study of HCC incidence data from the SEER 18 Registry Database. Researchers found:

• HCC rates increased with each successive birth cohort through 1959.

• Rates began to decrease with the 1960 to 1969 birth cohorts.

• APIs have had the highest HCC rates in the US for many years, but rates have stabilized and begun to decline in recent years.

• Between 2013 and 2030, rates among APIs are forecast to decline further, with estimated annual percentage changes of −1.59% among men and −2.20% among women.

• By 2030, Asians are forecast to have the lowest incidence rate among men, and Hispanic men are forecast to have the highest rate.

• Blacks are forecast to have the highest rate among women.

Citation: Petrick JL, Kelly SP, Altekruse SF, McGlynn KA, Rosenberg PS. Future of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence in the United States forecast through 2030. [Published online ahead of print April 4, 2016]. Clin Oncol. doi:10.1200/JCO.2015.64.7412.