Original Research

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcome Trends of Acute Kidney Injury in Elective Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty

Am J Orthop. 2016 January;45(1):E12-E19

References

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Statistical Analyses

We compared the baseline characteristics of hospitalized patients with and without AKI. To test for significance, we used the χ² test for categorical variables, the Student t test for normally distributed continuous variables, the Wilcoxon rank sum test for non-normally distributed continuous variables, and the Cochran-Armitage test for trends in AKI incidence. We used survey logistic regression models to calculate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) in order to estimate the predictors of AKI and the impact of AKI on hospital outcomes. We constructed final models after adjusting for confounders, testing for potential interactions, and ensuring no multicolinearity between covariates. Last, we computed the risk proportion of death attributable to AKI, indicating the proportion of deaths that could potentially be avoided if AKI and its complications were abrogated.²¹

We performed all statistical analyses with SAS Version 9.3 (SAS Institute) using designated weight values to produce weighted national estimates. The threshold for statistical significance was set at P < .01 (with ORs and 95% CIs that excluded 1).

Results

AKI Incidence, Risk Factors, and Trends

We identified 7,235,251 patients who underwent elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis between 2002 and 2012—an estimate consistent with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.²² Of that total, 94,367 (1.3%) had AKI. The proportion of discharges diagnosed with AKI increased rapidly over the decade, from 0.5% in 2002 to 1.8% to 1.9% in the period 2010–2012. This upward trend was highly significant (P_trend < .001) (Figure 1). Patients with AKI (vs patients without AKI) were more likely to be older (mean age, 70 vs 66 years; P < .001), male (50.8% vs 38.4%; P < .001), and black (10.07% vs 5.15%; P<. 001). They were also found to have a significantly higher comorbidity score (mean CCI, 2.8 vs 1.5; P < .001) and higher proportions of comorbidities, including hypertension, CKD, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus (DM), congestive heart failure, chronic liver disease, and hepatitis C virus infection. In addition, AKI was associated with perioperative myocardial infarction (MI), sepsis, cardiac catheterization, and blood transfusion. Regarding socioeconomic characteristics, patients with AKI were more likely to have Medicare/Medicaid insurance (72.26% vs 58.06%; P < .001) and to belong to the extremes of income categories (Table 2).

Using multivariable logistic regression, we found that increased age (1.11 increase in adjusted OR for every year older; 95% CI, 1.09-1.14; P < .001), male sex (adjusted OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.60-1.71; P < .001), and black race (adjusted OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.45-1.69; P < .001) were significantly associated with postoperative AKI. Regarding comorbidities, baseline CKD (adjusted OR, 8.64; 95% CI, 8.14-9.18; P < .001) and congestive heart failure (adjusted OR, 2.74; 95% CI, 2.57-2.92; P< .0001) were most significantly associated with AKI. Perioperative events, including sepsis (adjusted OR, 35.64; 95% CI, 30.28-41.96; P < .0001), MI (adjusted OR, 6.14; 95% CI, 5.17-7.28; P < .0001), and blood transfusion (adjusted OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 2.15-2.42; P < .0001), were also strongly associated with postoperative AKI. Last, compared with urban hospitals and small hospital bed size, rural hospitals (adjusted OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60-0.81; P< .001) and large bed size (adjusted OR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70-0.93; P = .003) were associated with lower probability of developing AKI (Table 3).

Figure 2 elucidates the frequency of AKI based on a combination of key preoperative comorbid conditions and postoperative complications—demonstrating that the proportion of AKI cases associated with other postoperative complications is significantly higher in the CKD and concomitant DM/CKD patient populations. Patients hospitalized with CKD exhibited higher rates of AKI in cases involving blood transfusion (20.9% vs 1.8%; P < .001), acute MI (48.9% vs 13.8%; P < .001), and sepsis (74.7% vs 36.3%;P< .001) relative to patients without CKD. Similarly, patients with concomitant DM/CKD exhibited higher rates of AKI in cases involving blood transfusion (23% vs 1.9%; P< .001), acute MI (51.1% vs 12.1%; P< .001), and sepsis (75% vs 38.2%; P < .001) relative to patients without either condition. However, patients hospitalized with DM alone exhibited only marginally higher rates of AKI in cases involving blood transfusion (4.7% vs 2%; P < .01) and acute MI (19.2% vs 16.7%; P< .01) and a lower rate in cases involving sepsis (38.2% vs 41.7%; P < .01) relative to patients without DM. These data suggest that CKD is the most significant clinically relevant risk factor for AKI and that CKD may synergize with DM to raise the risk for AKI.

Outcomes

We then analyzed the impact of AKI on hospital outcomes, including in-hospital mortality, discharge disposition, LOS, and cost of care. Mortality was significantly higher in patients with AKI than in patients without it (2.08% vs 0.06%; P < .001). Even after adjusting for confounders (eg, demographics, comorbidity burden, perioperative sepsis, hospital-level characteristics), AKI was still associated with strikingly higher odds of in-hospital death (adjusted OR, 11.32; 95% CI, 9.34-13.74; P < .001). However, analysis of temporal trends indicated that the odds for adjusted mortality associated with AKI decreased from 18.09 to 9.45 (P_trend = .01) over the period 2002–2012 (Figure 3). This decrease in odds of death was countered by an increase in incidence of AKI, resulting in a stable attributable risk proportion (97.9% in 2002 to 97.3% in 2012; P_trend = .90) (Table 4). Regarding discharge disposition, patients with AKI were much less likely to be discharged home (41.35% vs 62.59%; P < .001) and more likely to be discharged to long-term care (56.37% vs 37.03%; P< .001). After adjustment for confounders, AKI was associated with significantly increased odds of adverse discharge (adjusted OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 2.12-2.36; P< .001). Analysis of temporal trends revealed no appreciable decrease in the adjusted odds of adverse discharge between 2002 (adjusted OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.37-2.55; P < .001) and 2012 (adjusted OR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.76-2.11; P < .001) (Figure 4, Table 5). Last, both mean LOS (5 days vs 3 days; P < .001) and mean cost of hospitalization (US $22,269 vs $15,757; P < .001) were significantly higher in patients with AKI.