Original Research

Risk Factors for Thromboembolic Events After Surgery for Ankle Fractures

Am J Orthop. 2015 July;44(7):E220-E224

References

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ACS-NSQIP also records the occurrence of multiple events up to 30 days after surgery. For our study, VTE was defined as the occurrence of a DVT or a PE during this period. ACS-NSQIP defines DVT as a new blood clot or thrombus identified within a vein—with confirmation by duplex ultrasonography, venogram, or computed tomography (CT)—that required therapy (anticoagulation, placement of vena cava filter, and/or clipping of vena cava). PE is recorded if ventilation/perfusion (VQ) scan, CT examination, transesophageal echocardiogram, pulmonary arteriogram, CT angiogram, or any other definitive modality is positive.

Statistical analyses were performed with Stata Version 11.2 (StataCorp). Demographic and comorbidity variables were tested for association with occurrence of VTE using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression.

Final multivariate models were constructed with a backward stepwise process that initially included all potential variables and sequentially excluded variables with the highest P value until only those with P < .200 remained. Variables with .050 < P < .200 were left in the model to control for potential confounding but are not considered significantly associated with the outcome. Statistical significance was established at a 2-sided α of 0.050 (P < .050). The fitness of the final logistic regression model was assessed with the C statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

Results

For the 4412 ankle fracture patients who met the inclusion criteria, mean (SD) age was 50.9 (18.2) years, and mean (SD) BMI was 30.4 (7.6) kg/m². The cohort was 40.4% male. Surgery was performed on 235 patients (5.3%) with medial malleolus fracture, 1143 patients (25.9%) with lateral malleolus fracture, 1705 patients (38.6%) with bimalleollar fracture, and 1329 patients (30.1%) with trimalleollar fracture. Table 1 summarizes the patient characteristics.

Of the 33 patients (0.8%) with a VTE recorded within the first 30 postoperative days, 16 (0.4% of all patients) had a DVT recorded, 14 (0.3% of all patients) had a PE recorded, and 3 (0.1% of all patients) had both a DVT and a PE recorded. In 13 (39.4%) of the 33 patients with a VTE, the event occurred after discharge. VTEs were reported a mean (SD) of 11.5 (9.6) days after surgery. No patient in this study died of VTE.

Bivariate logistic regressions were performed to test the association of each patient variable with the occurrence of a VTE. Results are listed in Table 2. The bivariate analyses revealed significant associations between VTE after ankle fracture ORIF and the patient variables of age 60 years or older (odds ratio [OR], 2.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-5.72), class I obesity (BMI, 30-35 kg/m²: OR, 5.15, 95% CI, 1.14-23.28), class II and class III obesity (BMI, ≥35 kg/m²: OR, 6.33, 95% CI, 1.41-28.38), ASA classes 3 and 4 (OR, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.53-6.08), history of heart disease (OR, 5.10; 95% CI, 2.08-12.49), history of hypertension (OR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.39-5.66), and dependent functional status (OR, 3.39; 95% CI, 1.52-7.56).

Multivariate logistic regression was used to control for potential confounding variables and determine which factors were independently associated with VTEs. Results of this analysis are listed in Table 2 as well. The multivariate analysis revealed that the patient variables of class I obesity (BMI, 30-35 kg/m²: OR, 4.77; 95% CI, 1.05-21.72; P = .044), class II and class III obesity (BMI, ≥35 kg/m²: OR, 4.71; 95% CI, 1.03-21.68; P = .046), history of heart disease (OR, 3.28; 95% CI, 1.20-8.97; P = .020), and dependent functional status (OR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.11-6.04; P = .028) were independently associated with an increased rate of VTEs. Of note, anesthesia type was not significantly associated with occurrence of VTE on bivariate or multivariate analysis.

The C statistic of the final multivariate model was 0.76, indicating very good distinguishing ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed no evidence of lack of fit.

Discussion

Citing the lack of conclusive evidence and the low incidence of VTE after ankle fracture surgery, current recommendations are to avoid routine VTE prophylaxis in the postoperative management of patients who undergo this surgery.^1,5 However, it is important to identify patients who are at increased risk, as some may benefit from VTE prophylaxis. In the present study, we used the large, high-quality ACS-NSQIP database collecting information from multiple US hospitals to examine risk factors for VTE after ankle fracture ORIF. We identified 4412 patients who underwent ankle fracture ORIF between 2005 and 2012, and found an overall VTE incidence of 0.8%. Multivariate analysis identified obesity, history of heart disease, and dependent functional status as independent risk factors for VTE after ankle fracture ORIF.