How Has the RSV Season Changed Since the Pandemic Began?

Predicting (and Preventing) Chaos

As described in an article recently published in the Italian Journal of Pediatrics, Dr. Ciofi degli Atti worked on a model to predict the peak of RSV infections. “It is a mathematical predictive model that, based on observations in a certain number of seasons, allows the estimation of expectations,” she explained. It is challenging to develop a model when there are highly disruptive events such as a pandemic, she added, but these situations make predictive tools of the utmost interest. “The predictive capacity for the 2023 season was good: We had predicted that the peak would be reached in week 49, and indeed, the peak was observed in December.”

The study’s authors noted that in the years considered, the seasonal peak of RSV infections always occurred 4-5 weeks after the week in which the number of hospitalizations doubled or tripled. “It is a curve that rises very rapidly,” said the epidemiologist.

“RSV infection causes severe clinical conditions that affect young children who may need hospitalization and sometimes respiratory assistance. The epidemic peaks within a few weeks and has a disruptive effect on healthcare organization,” said Dr. Ciofi degli Atti. “Preventive vaccination is a huge opportunity in terms of health benefits for young children, who are directly involved, and also to reduce the impact that seasonal RSV epidemics have on hospital pathways. At the national and regional levels, work is therefore underway to start vaccination to prevent the circulation of this virus.”

This story was translated from Univadis Italy, which is part of the Medscape Professional Network, using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication. A version of this article appeared on Medscape.com.